Will Viswanthan Anand’s tiger dream come true?

A dream doesn't become reality through magic; it takes sweat, determination and hard work-- Anonymous

Argument Setting

The other day morning when I flipped the pages of my Times of India newspaper, a caption on tigers captured my attention. It was 21st December 2022. A thumb nail image of the Chess wizard Viswanathan Anand in conversation with two students added to my curiosity. A professional forester and keen wild lifer in me urged to wade through the contents immediately. The title read and I quote ‘Anand: I want to see more than 20,000 tigers in the country’. In the news report, Viswanathan Anand, fondly called Vishy by his admirers has been quoted as saying that 'people should experience nature as it helps conservation efforts’. While he lauded the Government on its tiger conservation projects, he said more needs to be done if the big cats have to be saved. He further said ‘There are lot of challenges….my dream is to see 20,000-30,000 tigers’. A truly laudable dream, I admired. Coming from the minds of the Grand Master who is known as the Tiger of Madras, it looked as a grandiose vision. But the prospect of the Grand Master’s dream flowering into a reality sooner than later began to engage me intensively. In fact, for valid reasons! 

Tiger catastrophe

British India boasted of an estimated population close to 1,00,000 Royal Bengal tigers at the turn of 20th century. But those were the years when no scientific census methodologies for counting tigers existed. Then how the tiger chroniclers flagged their numbers about one lakh was an obvious query. It was the tigers’ ubiquitous presence, frequency of their sighting and many number of human and cattle kills inflicted by the big cats in their vast distribution range within the Empire besides the sheer number of tigers that were gunned down every year by the ruling elites, represented by the Nobility, British military and bureaucracy, landed gentry and the provincial kings that gave an indication of their abundance. I am not sure as to whether the ‘Tiger of Madras’, has come across the reporting in the Madras District Gazette of February 1802 about some real tigers, prowling around Pallavaram and St.Thomas Mount close to Madras. 

    Human population of the region of present day India was just about 24 crore in 1900. Despite tigers cohabiting with men, ideal habitat conditions existed then that enabled the proliferation of the species. But the gallantry and sport hunting sojourns and elimination of many a ‘man-eating’ tigers by declaring them vermin pulled down the tiger count to an appalling 18,000, when the country gained independence. Large scale disreservation of forests for human development needs in the first three decades of independence deprived the tigers of their prime habitats and the prey base. Moreover, continuance of game permits and sanction of crop-protection gun licenses further brought down the tiger numbers to less than 1700 by 1970.

Turn around

Government soon recognized the inadequacies in the then prevailing wildlife protection regime and brought into effect a national law to protect the country’s wildlife wealth in the name of Wildlife (Protection) Act in 1972. Distressed over the fast depleting tiger population, the Union Government under Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s leadership imposed a country wide ban on tiger hunting and brought similar curb on the export of products obtained from tigers. Alongside, a flagship conservation programme, namely the Project Tiger was inaugurated in 1973 to provide preferential treatment for the endangered big cats. The wildlife rich forests that were the hunting preserves of the past gave way to sanctuaries and national parks within the ambit of the 1972 Act, which guaranteed enhanced protection status to the wildlife, particularly charismatic faunal species such as tiger, lion, one-horned rhinoceros, elephant etc. 

    Constitution of tiger reserves for the purpose of implementing many measures as part of the Project Tiger programme could well be considered as a beginning to the landscape level conservation approach in the country. With only a few tiger reserves formally notified in the first two decades of the project, the number of tiger reserves have grown to 53 as on date, encompassing an extent of 75, 255 sq.km of forest areas. That this accounts for a little over the tenth of the recorded forests in the country is a pointer to the fact that the nation is genuinely concerned about the future of this threatened species. An apex agency, namely the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) has been formed at the Government of India level to set the agenda for attaining positive developments in this sphere, to fix milestones, to liaise with the State forest departments who are managing the tiger reserves and to coordinate with the relevant International conservation organizations. 

Track record in tiger numbers

At global level it was estimated that 97 per cent of the wild tigers had disappeared in the 20th century, with the remaining 3,000 surviving at the beginning of the new millennium. They are confined to a minor subset, covering seven per cent area of its original distribution range in the 13 range countries. Various international conservation organizations met at the first Tiger Summit held in Russia’s St. Petersburg on 29th July 2010 to take stock of the results of the tiger conservation thus far. Since then, 29th July is observed as the International Tiger Day every year. This conclave kick started a tiger recovery agenda namely ‘Global Tiger Initiative Process’, where the participating governments agreed to double wild tiger numbers by 2022 in their respective nations- in short the ‘Tx2 goal’. This meant that the tiger numbers have to grow by 100 per cent from their 2010 benchmark in 12 years. And a brief statistical inquest into the goal, following ‘the Rule of 72’ reveals that each country had to increase its tiger count at an annual compounding growth rate of six per cent. It is disappointing that most tiger range countries are nowhere near the Tx2 finish post. The IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species Assessment, led by global wild cat conservation organization Panthera has reported that the global tiger population has stabilized and increased to an estimated number of 4,500 in 2022, much short of the goal of 6000+ tigers. India, contrastingly is a frontrunner in the race.

    India has been conducting tiger census on a four-yearly basis since 2006. In that year, the country had an estimated 1,411 tigers in wild. By the next assessment in 2010, this number rose to 1706, a 21 per cent jump. . In the subsequent quadrennial tiger assessments made in 2014 and 2018, India registered a population of 2,226, 2,967, respectively. With the track records in hand and considering various debilitating factors such as habitat loss, habitat degradation leading to fall in prey base, hunting and poaching, avenge killing and climate change impacts continuing to threaten the remaining tiger population, Tx2 at the first look simply appeared an imposing intent. However, the situation seemed to be on a optimistic footing for India, as its tiger population had doubled between 2006 and 2018. This translated to an average of 5.6 per cent or safely 6 per cent growth per annum over the 12 years between 2006 and 2018.

                                 

    From a mere 13 per cent rise between 2010 and 2014, the fourth iteration of the survey since its inception held in 2018-19 - the most comprehensive and robust to date, in terms of both resource and data amassed- registered a one third surge in population from the 2014 estimation. The NTCA claims that the 2018 survey deployed an unprecedented camera trap usage, involving the placement of motion sensor cameras in 26,838 locations spread across 131 sites, covering an effective area of 1,21,337 sq.km. This amounted to an extent of 60 per cent over the actual Tiger Reserve areas of the country, suggesting that the tigers occupy part of non tiger reserve areas that could be reserved forests, sanctuaries or National Parks. Ground survey in conjunction with camera traps concluded tiger presence in 88,985 sq. km across 20 Indian states. 

    If one takes 6 per cent annual compounding growth rate from the foregoing data, the doubling time of 12 years, as set out in the 2010 global meet and as evidenced from the results of past tiger census appear an achievable goal. But some researchers and conservation NGOs caution that that this rise may in part reflect improved survey methods and more comprehensive assessment, including expanded survey areas as opposed to attributing the population surge purely to protection. Results of 2022 tiger census are underway. Estimated to have grown at the rate as recorded during the 2006-2018 period, the computed population of the striped cats in 2022 could have crossed the Tx2 doubling mark with 3700+ tigers in its range states in India from its number of 1706 reported in 2010. 

Threats to tigers continuing 

A scrutiny of data on tiger mortality in the past indicates that the annual deaths hover around 3.5 per cent of the population. According to NTCA data, it was 3.5 per cent in 2014 with 78 deaths for a population of 2,226 and 3.4 per cent in 2018 with 101 deaths for a corresponding population of 2,967. These numbers per se don’t convey any significant management inference, other than the fact that this mortality information has to be built into our net growth rate in tiger population to project any estimation about the future. Any significant increase in deaths in a year, abnormal casualty figures in a particular TR or set of TRs, or unnatural causes of tiger casualties including poaching and seizures of tiger body parts must send signals of caution to the protection agencies for urgent course correction. That unnatural deaths and poaching accounted for 40 per cent of average mortality between 2012 and 2018 is definitely a thing to worry about. Though they are things of past, lessons of tiger crisis that surfaced at Sariska TR in Rajasthan and at Panna TR in Madhya Pradesh are cases in point. 

    One of the aims of the tiger range countries is to protect and expand their habitats. Notwithstanding with the significant increase in number of tiger reserves in the country that provide inviolate spaces for the proliferation of the species within their core zones, sizeable extent of these reserves fall in what is designated as the buffer zones. Buffer zones encompass reserve forest areas in addition to numerous human enclosures. Besides, spill over of tiger population in non-forest buffers abutting the TRs are too on the increase. Though promoted as an innovative conservation strategy in the new millennium, landscape level protection approach doesn’t preclude the presence of human foot print within the TRs that continues to hurl opportunities for human-tiger interface. In practical terms, this is a perfect recipe for frequent man-tiger conflicts, which is a formidable management challenge. In this regard, annual tiger mortality figures suggest a pattern. For instance, NTCA data base reveals that of the total of 116 deaths reported from the states during 2022, about 55, accounting for 47 per cent occurred outside the TRs.

Viswanathan’s dream might come true- But when?

I came across an anecdotal reference to Viswanathan Anand on his title ‘The Tiger of Madras’. Born in the then Madras state, the child chess prodigy grew up in Madras ‘in an environment where lightning speed and a quick eye for tactics ruled the day and play, the cub from Madras sharpened his claws and teeth, those claws and teeth which would one day make the strongest names in the chess world run for cover. The players would come to the seat, punch their moves and go. Nevertheless, no one caused him to blink. The cub was maturing into a tiger at lightning speed’. Vishy kept beating one guy after another, creating a record of becoming the World Chess Champion for five times. In the above anecdote, I indeed saw a well matching comparison of Anand with the lord of the jungle! 

    Viswanathan Anand has become the new Ambassador for World Wide Fund (WWF) India’s Environment Education programme during April 2020. This initiative of WWF that has been in operation since long aims to create a generation of critical thinkers, problem solvers and environmentally-conscious individuals and has been impacting over five million children across 2000 schools. It undertakes five major components, namely Nature Connect, Ek Prithvi, One Planet Academy, People for Planet and Wild Wisdom Quiz, each one envisaging a host of awareness and action-oriented projects. Commenting on his association with WWF, Anand reportedly said ‘Our children deserve a better, greener and more sustainable world than the one we are living in today and it is our responsibility as parents and elders to show them the way. I am very excited and happy to join WWF India and work together with them to help more and more children and youth know about the need to protect our natural world. I look forward to an enriching and progressive association with WWF India’. In one of his informal chats with the winners of the Wild Wisdom Quiz, Viswanathan Anand made known his futuristic intent on the wild tiger population in India, which I put in the first para of this blog. It was more an interesting coincidence that as the International Chess Federation’s (FIDE) Deputy President, the Grand Master made the first move on the chess board during the 44th Olympiad held at Mahabalipuram on the 29th July 2022, which mark the International Tiger Day. As the ambassador of both Chess Kids and WWF Environment Education programme, he witnessed the launch of the Tiger Anthem (TIGER TIGER) at the event, sung by ‘SOS from kids’, a global community kids.

    I made a bit of an exploratory attempt to forecast the tiger population in the coming decades in India, taking the bench mark figures and the population growth rate registered during the last four quadrennial censuses. My arithmetic calculation, under a ‘business as usual scenario’ with no backlashes or unforeseen calamitous events showed that it could take another 30 + years for the nation to realize the dream of Anand that is to attain the mid value of his dream target of 20000-30000 tigers (Graph). The underlying assumptions are that the country adds up to the area of tiger habitat  substantially (which is a doubtful proposition, given the land constraints), the state and central Government agencies sustain the protection measures by way of anti poaching infrastructure, augment habitat integrity and quality through adequate funding, minimize human-tiger conflict situations, enforce stringently the tiger protection laws to prevent illicit hunting and trading in tiger parts etc. It is, however, a moot point as to whether application of the principle of simple arithmetic progression in forecasting tiger numbers will confirm to the scientific requirement of physical carrying capacity of various tiger habitats. In this context, it needs to be recognized that tiger densities across their distribution range varies largely. For instance, in 2018 Mudumalai TR supported a tiger density of 15 per 100 sq.km, whereas 3.5 tigers prowled over same extent of forests in Anamalai TR.  This variable has a huge implication in applying the formula of prediction uniformly to all forest types in the country. Though in general, with great societal awareness to protect the big cat so as to enable it to regain its lost glory, future of the species appears to move on an optimistic trajectory.

End Note 

Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, India’s missile man and the country’s then President once said ‘Dreams are not what you see in your sleep, dreams are those that don't let you sleep.' How rightly this message gets interpreted in trying to reach the tiger goal that Vishy had dreamt of. Let the readers too have their own dream versions in unison with what Anand’s was. Still, the next generation probably may or may not witness its fruition!